Over the last three years, the ETS Human Progress Report has tracked one of the most consequential shifts: the move from static education-to-career pathways toward a world defined by continuous learning, validated skills and perpetual adaptation.
What began in 2024 as a baseline measurement of access to education, upward mobility and upskilling has evolved into a much deeper story. By 2026, the data no longer just describes pressure on learners and workers, it reveals how people are responding. Across education systems and labor markets, individuals are turning uncertainty into agency through skills, credentials and emerging technologies like AI.
Looking across three years of data, three changes stand out.
1. Skills have moved from “Advantage” to “Infrastructure”
In 2024, the story was urgency. People around the world recognized that continuous learning was essential, but access to skills development and validation remained uneven. Upskilling was framed as the “new currency,” yet many individuals struggled to afford it, prioritize it or prove its value.
By 2025, that narrative began to shift. The data showed early momentum: barriers to education access and upskilling eased slightly, skills credentials gained legitimacy and employers increasingly aligned around skills-based hiring. Skills were no longer supplemental to degrees, they were approaching parity.
In 2026, the shift is unmistakable. Skills are no longer just something people acquire; they are something people must refresh, demonstrate and validate continuously. Workers increasingly define job security not by tenure or titles, but by their ability to adapt. Credentials — certifications, badges, micro-credentials and assessed learning — have become the connective tissue between learning and opportunity.
What changed most is not belief, but expectation. Workers now expect skills to function as durable, portable proof that travels with them as roles evolve. When that proof is missing, anxiety rises. When its present, confidence follows.
2. AI has shifted from disruption to divider and opportunity multiplier
AI has been present in all three years of reporting, but its role has changed dramatically.
In 2024, AI appeared primarily as a disruptive force, something that would redefine skills and require new forms of assessment. There was optimism about AI-enabled learning, paired with caution about trust and bias.
In 2025, AI literacy emerged as a priority skill. Interest in credentials tied to AI and digital skills surged, particularly among younger workers and those in fast-growing economies. Still, the data suggested a gap between awareness and readiness.
By 2026, AI is no longer theoretical. Workers report that roughly a third of their tasks already involve AI, and they expect that number to exceed half within two years. The challenge has shifted from whether AI will shape work to how prepared people feel to manage it.
This has created a clear divide. Workers who use AI more frequently — and who can validate that capability — are significantly more optimistic about their career prospects. Those without access, experience or credentials feel mounting pressure and uncertainty. AI literacy now represents the largest skills gap in the data: high perceived importance, low confidence in proficiency.
AI is not just changing work, it is amplifying inequality between those who can prove readiness and those who cannot. Credentials and standards are becoming the bridge.
3. Opportunity is expanding but unevenly and earlier than before
Across all three years, the Human Progress Index shows steady improvement. Access to education, upskilling and mobility is gradually becoming easier overall. It suggests structural progress, not short-term fluctuation.
But the data also shows persistent gaps. Women, older workers, rural populations and those without credentials continue to face greater barriers. Opportunity is expanding but not for all.
What has changed is where people believe intervention must begin.
In 2024 and 2025, the focus was largely on adult learners and the workforce. By 2026, respondents clearly point upstream. The strongest call to action is now centered on K–12 education — specifically, on measuring skills earlier and more comprehensively.
People believe education systems cannot prepare learners for future jobs if they cannot clearly measure what students can do today. There is overwhelming support for integrating practical skills, AI-enabled learning and skills assessment into primary and secondary education — not as enrichment, but as foundation.
Opportunity, in other words, is no longer just about access to college or training later in life. It’s about building visibility into skills before students enter the workforce, so adaptation doesn’t begin under pressure.
What this means going forward
Three years of data tell a consistent story with a sharper edge each year:
- Skills are the currency of opportunity, but only when they are visible, validated and trusted.
- AI is accelerating both optimism and anxiety, depending on access and proof.
- Education and workforce systems are being asked to move faster, measure better and connect learning more directly to work.
Human progress is no longer defined solely by access to education or employment. It is defined by adaptability, supported by systems that make skills legible, portable and equitable.
The next chapter is not about convincing people that learning matters. The data shows they already believe that. The challenge now is building the infrastructure that turns continuous learning into continuous opportunity.
To take a closer look at trends in skills and AI over time, explore the full ETS Human Progress Report series here.